Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 82505.041266 87100.794612 91696.284941 96633.049096 101783.057821 106993.774922 112661.106292
2025-03-02 74560.010879 81569.624196 88777.123434 96731.806982 105254.591206 114101.746439 123969.524507
2025-03-09 69785.774421 78509.896142 87677.397708 98007.975884 109303.735173 121258.131863 134844.416169
2025-03-16 65077.871061 74979.811083 85578.745732 97733.254692 111250.649223 125786.544517 142563.203081
2025-03-23 62351.343690 73325.226234 85258.445941 99147.963104 114817.251582 131893.883878 151856.962095
2025-03-30 59742.044596 71578.226349 84634.567214 100036.000063 117634.436263 137042.674468 159989.732528
2025-04-06 57028.541947 69530.011881 83505.540481 100197.090338 119495.763243 141012.168805 166715.817386
2025-04-13 54489.700837 67536.182268 82304.984404 100149.548145 121008.367366 144499.423152 172829.741943
2025-04-20 53070.089258 66762.068143 82437.734192 101575.845914 124166.225852 149835.738390 181054.331984
2025-04-27 51755.839186 66033.945061 82556.384269 102926.631633 127192.485999 154996.801238 189076.722414
2025-05-04 50189.226063 64924.491479 82154.613015 103599.978355 129373.439166 159143.170261 195906.255753
2025-05-11 48385.527367 63449.448882 81245.585081 103602.518140 130704.404719 162253.758587 201498.085747
2025-05-18 46916.026289 62350.867179 80769.436679 104119.262009 132663.001343 166142.611391 208080.202595
2025-05-25 45344.263176 61068.966384 80021.473080 104264.484083 134145.391555 169453.623549 213984.876609
2025-06-01 44476.800063 60634.079864 80285.957815 105629.131140 137100.022646 174536.018661 222041.704209
2025-06-08 42869.688653 59200.298264 79254.600657 105339.033527 137984.457306 177088.936160 227029.945842
2025-06-15 42199.818844 58940.641266 79673.080128 106842.596186 141078.813474 182338.138415 235324.154576
2025-06-22 41315.301864 58367.639959 79665.551941 107786.124824 143462.375036 186716.679867 242570.607072
2025-06-29 40134.143589 57365.679002 79074.530147 107957.273688 144854.000069 189861.201570 248301.557486
2025-07-06 38917.283073 56276.952358 78335.923352 107906.772129 145940.037817 192611.907693 253543.686781
2025-07-13 38431.276025 56143.913671 78821.279223 109421.846924 149012.691670 197848.518366 261905.531107
2025-07-20 37937.280309 55980.380146 79251.750074 110856.486329 151982.566863 202968.466918 270150.954103
2025-07-27 37172.498616 55423.806155 79143.660813 111571.553008 154018.913397 206915.217659 276940.112569